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docs(eval): DEBS-2022 second real axis + honest ε-gate/delta corrections - #490

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zzylol merged 1 commit into
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docs/debs-real-axis

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@zzylol zzylol commented Jun 12, 2026

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Folds the real DEBS-2022 results into the eval plan as the second real-world axis, and honestly corrects two synthetic claims:

  • ε-gate: on real moving workloads (gct, DEBS) its incremental egress cut ≈0 — suppression is structural skew, not the ε threshold. Reframed as the open-window-freshness/correctness bound (Fig 4), not a bandwidth headline.
  • delta: 4.10× on the sketch payload but only 1.21× on the gzipped wire (gzip absorbs the static-bucket redundancy). Stated as a per-window-state/pre-compression win; sketch-vs-raw (26×) is the wire headline.
  • coordinated sampling: 32× differentiation (hot ASML p=0.031 / rare p=0.990, on the ε-floor), ingest ∝ p — strong on real skew.
  • accuracy: 0.9–1.1% ≈ α on real data across the sweep.

+2 reviewer-threat rows. Driver+data: datasets_eval/debs/cdm_eval/.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

…/delta claims

Real DEBS-2022 (685k events/3912 symbols, genuine activity skew) cross-check:
- ε-gate egress: flat emits as gate tightens (0.94× wire) — silence is STRUCTURAL
  SKEW not the ε threshold → reframe ε-gate as the open-window-freshness/correctness
  bound (Fig 4), NOT a bandwidth lever.
- delta: 4.10× on serialized PAYLOAD but only 1.21× on GZIPPED WIRE (gzip absorbs the
  static-bucket redundancy) → claim delta as per-window-state/pre-compression win;
  sketch-vs-raw (26×) is the wire headline.
- coordinated sampling: hot ASML p=0.031 / rare p=0.990 = 32× differentiation on the
  ε-floor, ingest ∝ p — STRONG on real skew.
- accuracy: ASML 0.9-1.1% ≈ α across the sweep — holds on real data.
Two real datasets now back §6 (gct + DEBS); +2 threat rows (delta-over-gzip,
ε-gate-is-freshness-not-bandwidth).
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zzylol merged commit 2575d2e into main Jun 12, 2026
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zzylol deleted the docs/debs-real-axis branch June 12, 2026 21:22
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